It’s been said many times that the 3 most important things in real estate are location, location & location. In 2025, for the past few weeks anyway, the most important 3 things in any economic endeavor seem to be tariffs, tariffs and tariffs. If only I had a dollar for every time someone has asked me how tariffs would impact golf. IF the tariffs are enacted, and the predicted increased inflation results, golf courses and clubs might consider thinking ahead to be prepared for the possible impact.

As one might imagine, I’ve given considerable thought to how the current economic tumult will impact golf courses and clubs and their resultant market values. There seem to be quite a few possibilities.

  • Nothing could happen – Of course, as I write this, Mr. Trump has announced a pause on some of the tariffs recently proposed, which was followed by a sharp upward spike in the financial markets.
  • Investors Seek Real Estate – If markets continue to fall, capital could seek out real estate as being a more stable investment and golf properties, with their higher Return on Investment (ROI) than many other types of investment real estate could become an attractive place to invest.
  • Golf Participation & Membership – These are areas that could react differently. With private club membership currently thriving, even with the advent of uncertain times, those with substantial investments in club entrance fees could seek to ride out the storm and stay at the club. Others might opt to preserve cash forfeit the entrance fee and either resign or take a leave of absence from their clubs. Daily-Fee courses and resorts may experience declines in play as the costs of every day goods and services increase, leaving less to spend on leisure activities. Some may decide to pursue less costly golf options which could enhance the affordable daily-fee market segment.
  • Golf Course Maintenance – As per my friend Pat Jones, “The biggest most immediate impact will be on fertilizer prices (potash comes from Canada) and equipment parts and supplies that come from Canada and China. Overall most golf pesticides we use are produced here by U.S. entities except some of the generic products that come out of China. Also look for weird things like sand prices to go up because of higher transportation costs.”
  • Golf Equipment & Apparel – These are areas that, if implemented, tariffs could impact dramatically as so many golf equipment items and components are made overseas. With so many golfers striving to keep up with the latest technology, increased prices could cause golfers to buy less frequently, and if combined with less frequent golf outings could negatively impact the industry.

Golf is generally perceived as being healthy at the present time but one thing we know is that the game has historically had a retention problem, especially during challenging economic periods. Rounds and membership are up from pre-pandemic levels. Unlike the COVID pandemic, where golf in all market segments surged, my sense is that the potential impact of the trade wars and the resulting uncertainty of tariffs and their implementation is that the various golf market segments (private, daily-fee, resort, etc.) along with the affordable, mid market and upscale segments of each could experience a variety of impacts.

The cost of golf, (private and public) has largely surged in many places during the past several years, especially as demand has increased and many courses (especially private clubs) have either finally addressed long overdue deferred maintenance or implemented capital improvement programs, which in many cases brought substantial debt into the equation, making increased pricing sustainable membership and play essential.

Like pilots deal with changing weather conditions and require planning for alternate landing sites, with the “on again, off again” nature of the tariffs and unpredictability of current economic policy, it would seem incumbent on each and every club/course to have an alternate strategy should golf be negatively impacted. We’ve recently been working with a few clubs that have under-performed, even in the COVID supercharged golf environment. A market repositioning might be in order. It’s not uncommon for golf courses and clubs to pre-determine what they want to be despite limited opportunity in the chosen market segment. Most times, this can be corrected, albeit often to the dismay of abandoning the owner’s dream.

In tumultuous times, thinking “outside the box” is often required to preserve performance and sustain and enhance market value. CHANGE is not always a welcome term, especially at private clubs, but it’s often necessary to evolve into the future successfully. Few of us know how this situation will evolve, but being prepared is advised.